WA Senate Predictions
June 30, 2016 | 12:24 | Federal | 2016 | SenateThe final state we’re looking at is Western Australia, and it’s a bit of a doozy.
WA Election Outcome Breakdown
What does this mean?
Well, the LNP is guaranteed 4 seats, the ALP is guaranteed 3 seats and The Greens are guaranteed 1 seat. The rest of them are up for grabs! The most likely outcome is:
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| Liberal National Coalition | 5 |
| Australian Labor Party | 4 |
| The Greens | 2 |
| LDP or NXT or NAT or PUP | 1 |
And, if you make me guess … it’s got to be the Nick Xenophon Team with the minor party seat. So let’s roll on to the logistic regressions for the minor parties.
Marijuana (HEMP) Party
The Liberal Democrats
The Nick Xenophon Team
The Palmer (Dio Wang) United Party
Since the National Party of Western Australia is running a split ticket from the Liberal Party this actually helps the LNP Coalition (if the WA Nationals join them in government) achieve more seats. They have the capacity to pick up 6 seats with only 5 quotas between them (if they split the vote just right):
The WA Nationals
The Nick Xenophon Team
All of the other minor parties should be (pretty) easily eliminated. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party is in with a chance, but they need to significantly increase their primary vote. And the major parties:
GRN2
LNP5
LNP6
ALP4
ALP5
Ooh, running total?
The running total is now… (and, I’ve forced myself to make a single, solid prediction):
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| Liberal National Coalition | 31 |
| Australian Labor Party | 25 |
| The Greens | 8 |
| Nick Xenophon Team | 6 |
| The Liberal Democrats | 2 |
| Jacqui Lambie Network | 1 |
| Glen Lazarus Team | 1 |
| Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party | 1 |
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 1 |
(Note: NXT + GRN + ALP = 39 … Continue to make of that what you will).