QLD Senate Predictions
June 30, 2016 | 00:50 | Federal | 2016 | SenateQueensland has quite a few popular minor parties running, and that’s making prediction very … hard.
QLD Election Outcome Breakdown
What does this mean?
Well, the LNP is guaranteed 4 seats, the ALP is guaranteed 3 seats each and The Greens will get 1 seat. The rest of them are up for grabs! The most likely outcome is:
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| Liberal National Coalition | 5 |
| Australian Labor Party | 4 |
| The Greens | 1 |
| Glen Lazarus Team | 1 |
| Katter or Hanson or Xenophon | 1 |
I am very unhappy predicting these seats, as I just don’t have enough polling data to make an estimate of the seriousness of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party, Glen Lazarus Team, Katter’s Australian Party or Nick Xenophon Team in the state of Queensland. Katter’s Australian Party didn’t poll well last election, but this could be due to the Clive Palmer Experience. Pauline Hanson heard there was an election on, so is running again. Is Nick Xenophon even known in other states? Will his name brand (and giant X) capture one of the six preferences?
I was going to weakly back away from making a prediction; but I’ve changed my mind. It’ll be Pauline Hanson and Glen Lazarus Team taking a seat each.
I performed logistic regression of the outcomes and have made some curves which denote the probability of an individual party getting a seat, given their primary vote.
The Glen Lazarus Team (Seat 1)
The Glen Lazarus Team (Seat 2)
Katter’s Australian Party
The Nick Xenophon Team
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
All of the other minor parties should be easily eliminated. The major parties have the following thresholds for achieving a seat. With all the minor parties running, there’s a chance the Greens may lose their only seat.
GRN1
GRN2
LNP5
LNP6
ALP4
ALP5
Ooh, running total?
The running total (for my predictions for NSW, SA, QLD (and the two Territories, which will be 2ALP + 2LNP) are now:
| Party | Seats | Other States (#spoilers) | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal National Coalition | 16 | 5+5+5 | 31 |
| Australian Labor Party | 13 | 4+4+4 | 25 |
| The Greens | 3 | 2+2+2 | 9 |
| Glen Lazarus Team | 1 | 1 | |
| Katter or Hanson or Xenophon | 1 | 1 | |
| Nick Xenophon Team | 5 | 5 | |
| The Liberal Democrats | 1 | 1 | |
| Minor Parties (No #spoilers) | 0 | 1+1+1 | 3 |
These are very likely to change as I run more simulations and get a feel for the recent movement in the polls. But might as well commit to it. (Note: NXT + GRN + ALP = 39 … Make of that what you will).