Tasmania has fewer minor parties running; but this hasn’t really made prediction much easier…

TAS Election Outcome Breakdown

What does this mean?

Well, the LNP is guaranteed 4 seats, the ALP is (all but) guaranteed 4 seats each and The Greens are guaranteed 1 seat. The rest of them are up for grabs! The most likely outcome is:

As with Queensland, it’s so hard to predict support for the Jacqui Lambie Network, and with ballot placement behind the Liberal National Coalition for the Liberal Democrats it’s hard to estimate their vote. I performed logistic regression of the outcomes and have made some curves which denote the probability of an individual party getting a seat, given their primary vote.

Family First Party

Jacqui Lambie Network (Seat 1)

Jacqui Lambie Network (Seat 2)

The Liberal Democrats

The Nick Xenophon Team

All of the other minor parties should be (pretty) easily eliminated. The Australian Sex Party and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are in with a chance, but they need to significantly increase their primary vote.

And the major parties:

GRN2

LNP5

LNP6

ALP4

ALP5

Ooh, running total?

The running total (for my predictions for NSW, SA, QLD and TAS (and the two Territories, which will be 2ALP + 2LNP) are now:

These are very likely to change as I run more simulations and get a feel for the recent movement in the polls. (Note: NXT + GRN + ALP = 38 … Continue to make of that what you will).

geekLections

Thomas Clement