Victoria is up next, and this is another state where the majors should lock down 11 seats. But there’s some wiggle room for a second minor party.
VIC Election Outcome Breakdown
What does this mean?
Well, the LNP is guaranteed 4 seats, the ALP is guaranteed 4 seats and The Greens are guaranteed 1 seat. The rest of them are up for grabs! The most likely outcome is:
|Liberal National Coalition||5|
|Australian Labor Party||4|
|Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party||1|
This state is a little easier to break down. The last spot, which may be taken by Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party could also be taken by The Nick Xenophon Team, The Australian Sex party or the 5th Australian Labor Party candidate. If the 5th Liberal National Party candidate drops off, that opens the door for a second minor party (or one in addition to the ALP). Unfortunately it looks like the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party (a.k.a. Senator Muir) will not be competitive enough to hold his seat.
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party
Australian Sex Party
The Nick Xenophon Team
The Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party
All of the other minor parties should be (pretty) easily eliminated. The Pirate Party and The Liberal Democrats are in with a chance, but they need to significantly increase their primary vote.
And the major parties:
Ooh, running total?
The running total (for my predictions for everywhere except WA) is now:
|Party||Seats||Other States (#spoilers)||Totals|
|Liberal National Coalition||26||5||31|
|Australian Labor Party||21||4||25|
|Nick Xenophon Team||5||5|
|The Liberal Democrats||2||2|
|Jacqui Lambie Network||1||1|
|Glen Lazarus Team||1||1|
|Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party||1||1|
|Katter or Hanson or Xenophon||1||1|
|Minor Parties (No #spoilers)||1||1|
These are very likely to change as I run more simulations and get a feel for the recent movement in the polls. (Note: NXT + GRN + ALP = 38 … Continue to make of that what you will).