Victoria is up next, and this is another state where the majors should lock down 11 seats. But there’s some wiggle room for a second minor party.

VIC Election Outcome Breakdown

What does this mean?

Well, the LNP is guaranteed 4 seats, the ALP is guaranteed 4 seats and The Greens are guaranteed 1 seat. The rest of them are up for grabs! The most likely outcome is:

Party	Seats
Liberal National Coalition	5
Australian Labor Party	4
The Greens	2
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party	1

This state is a little easier to break down. The last spot, which may be taken by Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party could also be taken by The Nick Xenophon Team, The Australian Sex party or the 5th Australian Labor Party candidate. If the 5th Liberal National Party candidate drops off, that opens the door for a second minor party (or one in addition to the ALP). Unfortunately it looks like the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party (a.k.a. Senator Muir) will not be competitive enough to hold his seat.

Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party

Australian Sex Party

The Nick Xenophon Team

The Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party

Family First

All of the other minor parties should be (pretty) easily eliminated. The Pirate Party and The Liberal Democrats are in with a chance, but they need to significantly increase their primary vote.

And the major parties:

GRN2

LNP5

LNP6

ALP4

ALP5

Ooh, running total?

The running total (for my predictions for everywhere except WA) is now:

Party	Seats	Other States (#spoilers)	Totals
Liberal National Coalition	26	5	31
Australian Labor Party	21	4	25
The Greens	6	2	8
Nick Xenophon Team	5		5
The Liberal Democrats	2		2
Jacqui Lambie Network	1		1
Glen Lazarus Team	1		1
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party	1		1
Katter or Hanson or Xenophon	1		1
Minor Parties (No #spoilers)		1	1

These are very likely to change as I run more simulations and get a feel for the recent movement in the polls. (Note: NXT + GRN + ALP = 38 … Continue to make of that what you will).

geekLections

Thomas Clement