Updated: 2016/07/13 3:20pm I have added in adjustments for the Tasmanian BTL count (16% of ALP given to ALP6, 14% of LNP given to LNP5), but nothing more specific than that (Such as the LNP1 -> LNP5 flow)

I still have the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers winning the last spot (which is theoretically a fight between LNP5 and GRN2). Notable features are:

  • One Nation is polling just behind Shooters, Fishers and Farmers when they are knocked out. If they have stronger preference flows than I am modelling, they are in with a shot.
  • There’s only ~24% of a quota exhausted in my modelling, but this will be much greater due to below the line votes (I am only doing ATL modelling)
  • Given this; it is likely to push back to the LNP > GRN > ONP > SFF for the knockout order of the final seat.
  • My modelling has a fatal flaw; in 2013 I’ve only modelled one group as “Left Wing Minor Party”. This means the flow matrices in Tasmania can’t include Left-to-Left flow. So, for example, when the Arts Party is excluded, it is unable to flow immediately to the Australian Sex Party. This artificially inflates the preferences cast towards everyone else. Also this year I have modelled 5 parties as “Left” which means there will be a bit of a vote-split. I plan on fixing this system using the full 2016 BTL and ATL votes; but I can’t do anything right now without significant work.

TL;DR - Treat the 1 SFF seat in Tasmania with caution. It’s probably LNP.

Low Variance Totals

Party Seats Notes
Liberal National Coalition 30  
Australian Labor Party 27  
The Greens 7 (All States + VIC)
Nick Xenophon Team 4 (3 SA + 1 WA [vs. GRN])
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 3 (1 WA + 1 NSW + 1 QLD)
The Liberal Democrats 1 (1 QLD)
Jacqui Lambie Network 1 (1 TAS)
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 1 (1 VIC)
LNP > GRN > Shooters > One Nation 1 (1 TAS)
Xenophon > LDP 1 (1 NSW)

High Variance Counts

New South Wales (77.43% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
F Liberal 1361729 36.54 4.75 5.0
N Labor 1179046 31.64 4.11 4.064
AL The Greens 261500 7.02 0.91 1.0
S Pauline Hanson's One Nation 153577 4.12 0.54 0.94
AI Nick Xenophon Team 64347 1.73 0.22 0.54
D Liberal Democrats 104569 2.81 0.36 0.456
Others 601453 16.14 2.1 0.0

Victoria (72.10% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
AF Liberal 913432 33.57 4.36 4.812
D Australian Labor Party 848811 31.19 4.05 4.016
AK The Greens 283874 10.43 1.36 1.996
A Derryn Hinch's Justice Party 163371 6.0 0.78 1.0
AH Liberal Democrats 39024 1.43 0.19 0.172
J Pirate Party 10182 0.37 0.05 0.004
Others 462635 17.0 2.21 0.0

Queensland (76.30% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
G Liberal National Party of Queensland 797675 35.51 4.62 4.988
D Australian Labor Party 604890 26.93 3.5 3.788
X Pauline Hanson's One Nation 202215 9.0 1.17 1.16
AK The Greens 151978 6.77 0.88 1.0
E Liberal Democrats 61706 2.75 0.36 0.944
L Nick Xenophon Team 44089 1.96 0.26 0.12
Others 383503 17.07 2.22 0.0

South Australia (73.65% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
H Liberal 273985 32.97 4.29 4.204
B Australian Labor Party 229675 27.63 3.59 3.78
F Nick Xenophon Team 181047 21.78 2.83 3.028
D The Greens 45601 5.49 0.71 0.98
O Pauline Hanson's One Nation 24805 2.98 0.39 0.008
Others 76011 9.15 1.19 0.0

Western Australia (75.98% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
X Liberal 447743 39.03 5.07 5.176
D Australian Labor Party 327083 28.51 3.71 3.96
J The Greens (WA) 118117 10.3 1.34 1.172
C Nick Xenophon Team 24362 2.12 0.28 0.988
R Pauline Hanson's One Nation 44629 3.89 0.51 0.704
Others 185333 16.15 2.1 0.0

Tasmania (85.85% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
B Australian Labor Party 104292 34.07 4.43 4.86
F Liberal 99461 32.49 4.22 4.12
C The Greens 33297 10.88 1.41 1.14
M Jacqui Lambie Network 25484 8.32 1.08 1.016
P Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 4148 1.35 0.18 0.864
Others 39473 12.89 1.68 0.0

Low Variance Counts (accurate if there’s no systemic bias in sampling)

New South Wales (77.43% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
F Liberal 1356202 36.55 4.75 5.0
N Labor 1174689 31.66 4.12 4.0
AL The Greens 260475 7.02 0.91 1.0
S Pauline Hanson's One Nation 152715 4.12 0.54 1.0
AI Nick Xenophon Team 64061 1.73 0.22 0.796
D Liberal Democrats 103987 2.8 0.36 0.204
Others 598570 16.13 2.1 0.0

Victoria (72.10% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
AF Liberal 893468 33.42 4.35 5.0
D Australian Labor Party 835297 31.25 4.06 4.0
AK The Greens 279319 10.45 1.36 2.0
A Derryn Hinch's Justice Party 160607 6.01 0.78 1.0
Others 504443 18.87 2.45 0.0

Queensland (76.30% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
G Liberal National Party of Queensland 795015 35.51 4.62 5.0
D Australian Labor Party 603141 26.94 3.5 4.0
AK The Greens 151448 6.77 0.88 1.0
X Pauline Hanson's One Nation 201598 9.01 1.17 1.0
E Liberal Democrats 61372 2.74 0.36 1.0
Others 426026 19.03 2.47 0.0

South Australia (73.65% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
H Liberal 273010 32.96 4.28 4.0
B Australian Labor Party 228837 27.63 3.59 4.0
F Nick Xenophon Team 180549 21.8 2.83 3.0
D The Greens 45424 5.48 0.71 1.0
Others 100520 12.14 1.58 0.0

Western Australia (75.98% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
X Liberal 447730 39.03 5.07 5.0
D Australian Labor Party 326956 28.51 3.71 4.0
R Pauline Hanson's One Nation 44628 3.89 0.51 1.0
J The Greens (WA) 118107 10.3 1.34 1.0
C Nick Xenophon Team 24355 2.12 0.28 1.0
Others 185231 16.15 2.1 0.0

Tasmania (85.85% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
B Australian Labor Party 104292 34.07 4.43 5.0
F Liberal 99461 32.49 4.22 4.0
P Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 4148 1.35 0.18 1.0
M Jacqui Lambie Network 25484 8.32 1.08 1.0
C The Greens 33297 10.88 1.41 1.0
Others 39473 12.89 1.68 0.0

Six Year Terms (using proportional representation, rather than first elected, which is a horrible method)

New South Wales (77.43% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
F Liberal 1046388 36.16 2.53 3.0
N Labor 926586 32.02 2.24 2.0
AL The Greens 213964 7.39 0.52 1.0
Others 706991 24.43 1.71 0.0

Victoria (72.10% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
AF Liberal 627716 32.42 2.27 2.0
D Australian Labor Party 608994 31.46 2.2 2.0
AK The Greens 218540 11.29 0.79 1.0
A Derryn Hinch's Justice Party 115501 5.97 0.42 1.0
Others 365279 18.87 1.32 0.0

Queensland (76.30% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
G Liberal National Party of Queensland 500588 33.73 2.36 2.0
D Australian Labor Party 405217 27.31 1.91 2.0
AK The Greens 112160 7.56 0.53 1.0
X Pauline Hanson's One Nation 136124 9.17 0.64 1.0
Others 329801 22.23 1.56 0.0

South Australia (73.65% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
H Liberal 232968 32.45 2.27 2.0
F Nick Xenophon Team 156997 21.86 1.53 2.0
B Australian Labor Party 201048 28.0 1.96 2.0
Others 127023 17.69 1.24 0.0

Western Australia (75.98% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
X Liberal 344352 38.4 2.69 3.0
D Australian Labor Party 258787 28.86 2.02 2.0
J The Greens (WA) 96086 10.72 0.75 1.0
Others 197414 22.02 1.54 0.0

Tasmania (85.85% of all Enrolled)

Group Name Votes Percent Quotas Seats!
F Liberal 85058 31.83 2.23 2.0
B Australian Labor Party 91861 34.38 2.41 2.0
M Jacqui Lambie Network 22965 8.59 0.6 1.0
C The Greens 29876 11.18 0.78 1.0
Others 37447 14.01 0.98 0.0