Updated: 2016/07/13 3:20pm I have added in adjustments for the Tasmanian BTL count (16% of ALP given to ALP6, 14% of LNP given to LNP5), but nothing more specific than that (Such as the LNP1 -> LNP5 flow)
I still have the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers winning the last spot (which is theoretically a fight between LNP5 and GRN2). Notable features are:
- One Nation is polling just behind Shooters, Fishers and Farmers when they are knocked out. If they have stronger preference flows than I am modelling, they are in with a shot.
- There’s only ~24% of a quota exhausted in my modelling, but this will be much greater due to below the line votes (I am only doing ATL modelling)
- Given this; it is likely to push back to the LNP > GRN > ONP > SFF for the knockout order of the final seat.
- My modelling has a fatal flaw; in 2013 I’ve only modelled one group as “Left Wing Minor Party”. This means the flow matrices in Tasmania can’t include Left-to-Left flow. So, for example, when the Arts Party is excluded, it is unable to flow immediately to the Australian Sex Party. This artificially inflates the preferences cast towards everyone else. Also this year I have modelled 5 parties as “Left” which means there will be a bit of a vote-split. I plan on fixing this system using the full 2016 BTL and ATL votes; but I can’t do anything right now without significant work.
TL;DR - Treat the 1 SFF seat in Tasmania with caution. It’s probably LNP.
Low Variance Totals
Party |
Seats |
Notes |
Liberal National Coalition |
30 |
|
Australian Labor Party |
27 |
|
The Greens |
7 |
(All States + VIC) |
Nick Xenophon Team |
4 |
(3 SA + 1 WA [vs. GRN]) |
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation |
3 |
(1 WA + 1 NSW + 1 QLD) |
The Liberal Democrats |
1 |
(1 QLD) |
Jacqui Lambie Network |
1 |
(1 TAS) |
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party |
1 |
(1 VIC) |
LNP > GRN > Shooters > One Nation |
1 |
(1 TAS) |
Xenophon > LDP |
1 |
(1 NSW) |
High Variance Counts
New South Wales (77.43% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
F |
Liberal |
1361729 |
36.54 |
4.75 |
5.0 |
N |
Labor |
1179046 |
31.64 |
4.11 |
4.064 |
AL |
The Greens |
261500 |
7.02 |
0.91 |
1.0 |
S |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
153577 |
4.12 |
0.54 |
0.94 |
AI |
Nick Xenophon Team |
64347 |
1.73 |
0.22 |
0.54 |
D |
Liberal Democrats |
104569 |
2.81 |
0.36 |
0.456 |
Others |
|
601453 |
16.14 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
Victoria (72.10% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
AF |
Liberal |
913432 |
33.57 |
4.36 |
4.812 |
D |
Australian Labor Party |
848811 |
31.19 |
4.05 |
4.016 |
AK |
The Greens |
283874 |
10.43 |
1.36 |
1.996 |
A |
Derryn Hinch's Justice Party |
163371 |
6.0 |
0.78 |
1.0 |
AH |
Liberal Democrats |
39024 |
1.43 |
0.19 |
0.172 |
J |
Pirate Party |
10182 |
0.37 |
0.05 |
0.004 |
Others |
|
462635 |
17.0 |
2.21 |
0.0 |
Queensland (76.30% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
G |
Liberal National Party of Queensland |
797675 |
35.51 |
4.62 |
4.988 |
D |
Australian Labor Party |
604890 |
26.93 |
3.5 |
3.788 |
X |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
202215 |
9.0 |
1.17 |
1.16 |
AK |
The Greens |
151978 |
6.77 |
0.88 |
1.0 |
E |
Liberal Democrats |
61706 |
2.75 |
0.36 |
0.944 |
L |
Nick Xenophon Team |
44089 |
1.96 |
0.26 |
0.12 |
Others |
|
383503 |
17.07 |
2.22 |
0.0 |
South Australia (73.65% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
H |
Liberal |
273985 |
32.97 |
4.29 |
4.204 |
B |
Australian Labor Party |
229675 |
27.63 |
3.59 |
3.78 |
F |
Nick Xenophon Team |
181047 |
21.78 |
2.83 |
3.028 |
D |
The Greens |
45601 |
5.49 |
0.71 |
0.98 |
O |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
24805 |
2.98 |
0.39 |
0.008 |
Others |
|
76011 |
9.15 |
1.19 |
0.0 |
Western Australia (75.98% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
X |
Liberal |
447743 |
39.03 |
5.07 |
5.176 |
D |
Australian Labor Party |
327083 |
28.51 |
3.71 |
3.96 |
J |
The Greens (WA) |
118117 |
10.3 |
1.34 |
1.172 |
C |
Nick Xenophon Team |
24362 |
2.12 |
0.28 |
0.988 |
R |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
44629 |
3.89 |
0.51 |
0.704 |
Others |
|
185333 |
16.15 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
Tasmania (85.85% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
B |
Australian Labor Party |
104292 |
34.07 |
4.43 |
4.86 |
F |
Liberal |
99461 |
32.49 |
4.22 |
4.12 |
C |
The Greens |
33297 |
10.88 |
1.41 |
1.14 |
M |
Jacqui Lambie Network |
25484 |
8.32 |
1.08 |
1.016 |
P |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
4148 |
1.35 |
0.18 |
0.864 |
Others |
|
39473 |
12.89 |
1.68 |
0.0 |
Low Variance Counts (accurate if there’s no systemic bias in sampling)
New South Wales (77.43% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
F |
Liberal |
1356202 |
36.55 |
4.75 |
5.0 |
N |
Labor |
1174689 |
31.66 |
4.12 |
4.0 |
AL |
The Greens |
260475 |
7.02 |
0.91 |
1.0 |
S |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
152715 |
4.12 |
0.54 |
1.0 |
AI |
Nick Xenophon Team |
64061 |
1.73 |
0.22 |
0.796 |
D |
Liberal Democrats |
103987 |
2.8 |
0.36 |
0.204 |
Others |
|
598570 |
16.13 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
Victoria (72.10% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
AF |
Liberal |
893468 |
33.42 |
4.35 |
5.0 |
D |
Australian Labor Party |
835297 |
31.25 |
4.06 |
4.0 |
AK |
The Greens |
279319 |
10.45 |
1.36 |
2.0 |
A |
Derryn Hinch's Justice Party |
160607 |
6.01 |
0.78 |
1.0 |
Others |
|
504443 |
18.87 |
2.45 |
0.0 |
Queensland (76.30% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
G |
Liberal National Party of Queensland |
795015 |
35.51 |
4.62 |
5.0 |
D |
Australian Labor Party |
603141 |
26.94 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
AK |
The Greens |
151448 |
6.77 |
0.88 |
1.0 |
X |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
201598 |
9.01 |
1.17 |
1.0 |
E |
Liberal Democrats |
61372 |
2.74 |
0.36 |
1.0 |
Others |
|
426026 |
19.03 |
2.47 |
0.0 |
South Australia (73.65% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
H |
Liberal |
273010 |
32.96 |
4.28 |
4.0 |
B |
Australian Labor Party |
228837 |
27.63 |
3.59 |
4.0 |
F |
Nick Xenophon Team |
180549 |
21.8 |
2.83 |
3.0 |
D |
The Greens |
45424 |
5.48 |
0.71 |
1.0 |
Others |
|
100520 |
12.14 |
1.58 |
0.0 |
Western Australia (75.98% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
X |
Liberal |
447730 |
39.03 |
5.07 |
5.0 |
D |
Australian Labor Party |
326956 |
28.51 |
3.71 |
4.0 |
R |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
44628 |
3.89 |
0.51 |
1.0 |
J |
The Greens (WA) |
118107 |
10.3 |
1.34 |
1.0 |
C |
Nick Xenophon Team |
24355 |
2.12 |
0.28 |
1.0 |
Others |
|
185231 |
16.15 |
2.1 |
0.0 |
Tasmania (85.85% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
B |
Australian Labor Party |
104292 |
34.07 |
4.43 |
5.0 |
F |
Liberal |
99461 |
32.49 |
4.22 |
4.0 |
P |
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers |
4148 |
1.35 |
0.18 |
1.0 |
M |
Jacqui Lambie Network |
25484 |
8.32 |
1.08 |
1.0 |
C |
The Greens |
33297 |
10.88 |
1.41 |
1.0 |
Others |
|
39473 |
12.89 |
1.68 |
0.0 |
Six Year Terms (using proportional representation, rather than first elected, which is a horrible method)
New South Wales (77.43% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
F |
Liberal |
1046388 |
36.16 |
2.53 |
3 |
N |
Labor |
926586 |
32.02 |
2.24 |
2 |
AL |
The Greens |
213964 |
7.39 |
0.52 |
1 |
Others |
|
706991 |
24.43 |
1.71 |
0 |
Victoria (72.10% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
AF |
Liberal |
627716 |
32.42 |
2.27 |
2 |
D |
Australian Labor Party |
608994 |
31.46 |
2.2 |
2 |
AK |
The Greens |
218540 |
11.29 |
0.79 |
1 |
A |
Derryn Hinch's Justice Party |
115501 |
5.97 |
0.42 |
1 |
Others |
|
365279 |
18.87 |
1.32 |
0 |
Queensland (76.30% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
G |
Liberal National Party of Queensland |
500588 |
33.73 |
2.36 |
2 |
D |
Australian Labor Party |
405217 |
27.31 |
1.91 |
2 |
AK |
The Greens |
112160 |
7.56 |
0.53 |
1 |
X |
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
136124 |
9.17 |
0.64 |
1 |
Others |
|
329801 |
22.23 |
1.56 |
0 |
South Australia (73.65% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
H |
Liberal |
232968 |
32.45 |
2.27 |
2 |
F |
Nick Xenophon Team |
156997 |
21.86 |
1.53 |
2 |
B |
Australian Labor Party |
201048 |
28.0 |
1.96 |
2 |
Others |
|
127023 |
17.69 |
1.24 |
0 |
Western Australia (75.98% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
X |
Liberal |
344352 |
38.4 |
2.69 |
3 |
D |
Australian Labor Party |
258787 |
28.86 |
2.02 |
2 |
J |
The Greens (WA) |
96086 |
10.72 |
0.75 |
1 |
Others |
|
197414 |
22.02 |
1.54 |
0 |
Tasmania (85.85% of all Enrolled)
Group |
Name |
Votes |
Percent |
Quotas |
Seats! |
F |
Liberal |
85058 |
31.83 |
2.23 |
2 |
B |
Australian Labor Party |
91861 |
34.38 |
2.41 |
2 |
M |
Jacqui Lambie Network |
22965 |
8.59 |
0.6 |
1 |
C |
The Greens |
29876 |
11.18 |
0.78 |
1 |
Others |
|
37447 |
14.01 |
0.98 |
0 |