## Victorian North-East Region Analysis

November 21, 2018 | 00:20 | State | VIC | 2018 | Upper-HouseIn this post today I’ll walk through the first four regions of the election:

- Eastern Metropolitan Region
- Eastern Victoria Region
- Northern Metropolitan Region
- Northern Victoria Region

I’ll be providing two plots with each region to assist analysis. The first one is a probabilistic plot of the likely outcomes for **each individual party**. Here’s a short explanation:

- The groups / parties are ordered by ballot order from top to bottom
- I’ve skipped parties that don’t have any chance of a seat

- Left to right is the percent vote each party receives.
- The vertical divisions represent
**quotas**of votes, occurring every 16.6%.

- The vertical divisions represent
- Each segment is filled from the bottom up with rectangle.
- The size of this rectangle is equal to the probability that this party will win at least this many seats.

- The vertical line in each row represents the
**expected**percent vote for each group. - The curves represent
**probability of winning this seat**as a function of**percent vote**- These curves intersect the vertical lines at
**approximately**the height of the box - But not exactly (this is due to variance in the models, and taking Bayes point estimates instead of just averaging the results)

- These curves intersect the vertical lines at

The second plot is a probabilistic chart of the likely outcomes for **the region as a whole**, representing the likely set of five people elected to the upper house. Each column represents a different party while each row represents a different set of five people, with a percent probability on the left.

## Eastern Metropolitan Region

It’s overwhelmingly likely we will see two **Liberal** and **Labor** seats, and the final seat is a tossup amongst the minor parties.

The best deal here is clearly **Transport Matters Party**, who has the fastest rising curve. If not them, it should be one of **LDP**, **Hinch’s Justice** or **Health Australia**.

The important takeaway here is that if **The Greens** win a seat, it will most likely be at the expense of **Labor**.

### Prediction

- LNP: 2
- ALP: 2
- CAR: 1

## Eastern Victoria Region

This region is very similar to **EMR**, the first four seats will be split between **Liberal** and **Labor**. However, the **Greens** have a better chance at fending off the micro parties.

None of the micros have an exceptional deal, but if they get enough raw **bulk** they will take the final seat. The best placed are **Animal Justice** (with the top of the ballot benefit!), **LDP** or **Shooters**.

And it’s clear that the **Greens** aren’t fighting with **Labor** directly for a seat here.

### Prediction

- LNP: 2
- ALP: 2
- LDP: 1

## Northern Metropolitan Region

This region is much more left leaning than the last two. There will only be one **Liberal** seat, two **Labor** and probably one **Greens**. The final seat could be a **Labor** third, but will most likely be a micro party.

This is **Fiona Patten’s** region, and there’s a lot to analyse with the **ex-Sex Party**

- Name change to
**Reason**loses brand recognition - Her ballot placement is good, highest ranked continuing candidates
- Her deals are good with the micros

It’s hard to say who will win the last seat here, but it will likely be a contest between **Reason** and **Hinch’s Justice**

### Prediction

- LNP: 1
- ALP: 2
- GRN: 1
- DHJ: 1 (Hinch will Clinch)

## Northern Victoria Region

A really interesting situation. Both **Labor** and the **Greens** might not poll well enough to get their 2nd and 1st candidates respectively elected, and they could **both** lose to micro parties! It’s unlikely, but possible.

The most competitive are the **LDP**, **Shooters**, **DLP** and **Shooters**. The **LDP**’s deal is by far and away the best, and they have great ballot position (to the left of the **Liberals**)!

### Prediction

- LNP: 2
- ALP: 2 (Below the lines from
**GRN**will secure it) - LDP: 1 (Taking +2% of the votes from the
**Liberals**)

## Aggregated Predictions:

- LNP: 7 (-1)
- ALP: 8 (+1)
- LDP: 2 (+2)
- GRN: 1 (-1)
- CAR: 1 (+1)
- DHJ: 1 (+1)
- SEX: 0 (-1)
- SFF: 0 (-2)

## So how should I vote?

Take a look at the region you’re in, and look for the parties that have a chance of being elected. From those, vote below the line for your favoured parties. And, always, vote up the ballot (numbering candidates from bottom to top).