30/11 9:00am - Fiona Patten’s in a much better position to retain her seat in NMR. Further counting has increased her vote percent by about 0.5% and pushing her into competition with the Liberals

Also, the LDP is looking much stronger in SEMR. They always had a great deal (1.33% in pre-election analysis was my 50/50 level), and now they’re looking even stronger under 1%! I’m taking that seat back from the Transport Matters Party.

Party	Total	EMR	EVR	NMR	NVR	SEMR	SMR	WMR	WVR
Australian Labor Party	18	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	2
Liberal / National Coalition	11 (-1)	2	2	0 (-1)	2	1	2	1	1
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Liberal Democrats	2 (+1)	0	0	0	1	1 (+1)	0	0	0
Transport Matters	1	1	0	0	0	0 (-1)	0	0	0
The Australian Greens	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Sustainable Australia	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Aussie Battler Party	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Animal Justice Party	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Fiona Patten’s Reason Party	1 (+1)	0	0	1 (+1)	0	0	0	0	0

27/11 10:20pm - Most important update is that the seat has moved back to the LNP from Labor in NMR (as expected, and as I’d already noted days ago).

A lower variance analysis, now that more votes have come in gives the following expected changes to outcome:

• EVR
  • Aussie Battler Party vs. Shooters, Fishers & Farmers is very close, so we’ll move it to Aussie Battler being slightly in front on the most likely overall outcome.
• WMR
  • Aussie Battler Party vs. Shooters, Fishers & Farmers is very close, so we’ll move it to Shooters, Fishers & Farmers being quite a bit better.
• WVR
  • Animal Justice Party likely to pick up the second seat from LNP
• Net result is an increase for the AJP and a decrease for the LNP

Party	Total	EMR	EVR	NMR	NVR	SEMR	SMR	WMR	WVR
Australian Labor Party	18	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	2
Liberal / National Coalition	12 (-1)	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	1 (-1)
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Transport Matters	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
The Australian Greens	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers	1	0	0 (-1)	0	0	0	0	1(+1)	0
Liberal Democrats	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Sustainable Australia	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Aussie Battler Party	1	0	1 (+1)	0	0	0	0	0 (-1)	0
Animal Justice Party	1 (+1)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1 (+1)

25/11 11:40am - Not much has changed since I last updated, about 40% of the ballots have been assigned to groups. It looks like the vote counts haven’t been updated in a while (nothing live since 2:30am)

11:14pm - I have to give the coalition the last seat in NMR. They’ll get it back as the more conservative votes are counted. Table updated below with ALP 18 and LNP 13.

10:56pm - Added in most likely outcome charts, I will be heading to bed in the next hour and will resume updating in the morning. My current best estimate of final composition as at 10:56pm:

Party	Total	EMR	EVR	NMR	NVR	SEMR	SMR	WMR	WVR
Australian Labor Party	18	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	2
Liberal / National Coalition	13	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	2
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Transport Matters	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
The Australian Greens	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Shooters, Fishers & Farmers	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Liberal Democrats	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Sustainable Australia	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Aussie Battler Party	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0

Just be aware that below the line votes, and the bulk of the counting to be done, still leaves the door open for changes here.

But the substantive cause of this is the breakdown in the relationship between Labor and the Greens.

9:50pm - The seats are taking much more shape. It’s very clear now that the Greens are in a very tough spot, while Labor may get 17 or 18 seats.

8:28pm - Votes are now coming in from every region, so the graphs below are true for the small number of votes that have come in.

Total Seats

Percent Vote

Most Likely Seats

geekLections

Thomas Clement