Ok, we’re a little close to polling day (hello Friday), so here are some not-so-rushed potential outcomes for the Agricultural Region

Agricultural Region Election Outcome Breakdown

What does this mean?

Well, the LNP is guaranteed 2 seats (one National, one Liberal), and has a chance at 3. While the ALP is guaranteed 2 seats (almost) and a shot at 3 depending on the swing. The Shooters and Fishers (SFF) are likely to pick up a seat (thanks to a really poor Liberal to National preference deal that puts the SFF between them, dunno who orchestrated that disaster ¯\_(ツ)_/¯). The most likely outcome is:

Party	Seats
Liberal Party	1
WA Nationals	1
WA Labor	2
The Shooters and Fishers	1
One Nation	1

Although the above graph gives a greater chance to the Liberal Democrats (LDP) I have definitely overestimated their vote share, so gave the highest probability to One Nation. The WA Greens are unlikely to gain a seats, and if they do it will come at the expense of the probable One Nation Seat.

I performed logistic regression of the outcomes and have made some curves which denote the probability of an individual party getting a seat, given their primary vote.

The Shooters and Fishers

The Liberal Democrats

One Nation

The Australian Christians

Family First

The final seat (which I have predicted as One Nation) has a chance of being taken by another party (including Australian Christians and Family First above). This is the total chance that a micro party will win the final seat. Preference harvesting in this region will be very difficult:

Total Micro Party Vote (Not including One Nation and Shooters votes)

I’ll add in the Greens here as a minor party, as they’ve got a very small chance of picking up this seat (they polled 5.1% in the previous election):

The Greens

And here’s a look at the major parties seat breakdowns:

Major Parties Final Seats: ALP2

ALP3

LP2

NP2

Ok, so let’s now have a look at the East Metropolitan Region.

East Metropolitan Region Election Outcome Breakdown

What does this mean?

Well, the LNP is all but guaranteed 2 seats, and has a small chance at 3. The ALP is guaranteed 2 seats and a really good shot at three. That only leaves one other seat undecided, which looks set to be decided on preference deals. The party with the best snowball electoral chance of getting up is Fluoride Free, overall the most likely outcome is:

Party	Seats
Liberal Party	2
WA Labor	3
Fluoride Free	1

If Fluoride Free get knocked out of the running early, then it’s up for grabs. (Cool side note, Fluoride Free have an electoral chance at almost any primary vote which make the logistic regression model a really poor fit). The other parties in with a decent shot are: The Australian Christians, One Nation and The WA Greens. If WA Labor doesnt’t secure their third seat it causes chaos with any two of the previously mentioned four parties being able to take it too.

I performed logistic regression of the outcomes and have made some curves which denote the probability of an individual party getting a seat, given their primary vote:

The Australian Christians

One Nation

WA Greens

This is the likelihood of Fluoride Free picking up the seat, as a function of total votes for micro parties:

Fluoride Free vs. Micro Vote %

his is the likelihood of at least one micro (not including WA Greens) picking up a seat, as a function of total votes for micro parties:

A Micro vs. Micro Vote %

And here’s a look at the major parties seat breakdowns:

Major Parties Final Seats: ALP3

ALP4

LP2

LP3

The running total of “most likely outcome” is … drum roll please:

Party	Seats
Liberal Party	3
WA Nationals	1
WA Labor	5
The Shooters and Fishers	1
One Nation	1
Fluoride Free	1

geekLections

Thomas Clement