The final hastily written article of the night!

South Metropolitan Region Election Outcome Breakdown

What does this mean?

Well, each of the LP and ALP are (almost) guaranteed two seats each. The ALP should pick up a third (if not, the WA Greens will pick it up), and the final seat is a cointoss for a number of smaller parties, between the Australian Christians, WA Greens, One Nation, Family First and the Daylight Savings Party. The most likely outcome is:

Party	Seats
Liberal Party	2
WA Labor	3
Australian Christians	1

I performed logistic regression of the outcomes and have made some curves which denote the probability of an individual party getting a seat, given their primary vote. The Daylight Savings party’s path to election is a snowball, so isn’t modelled well with a logistic regression against its primary vote:

The Greens

Australian Christians

One Nation

Family First

And here’s a look at the major parties seat breakdowns:

Major Parties Final Seats: ALP3

LP3

Ok, so let’s now have a look at the South West Region.

South West Region Election Outcome Breakdown

What does this mean?

Well, the LNP and ALP will pick up two seats each (either two LP or one LP and one NP). The other two seats are most likely being fought out by: the remaining LNP candidate, One Nation and WA Greens. Less likely scenarios involve other minor parties such as Fluoride Free, Liberal Democrats, FLUX, Daylight Savings, Shooters and Fishers and Family First. Overall the most likely outcome is:

Party	Seats
Liberal Party	2
WA Labor	2
WA Greens	1
One Nation	1

I performed logistic regression of the outcomes and have made some curves which denote the probability of an individual party getting a seat, given their primary vote. FLUX, Fluoride Free and the Daylight Savings party’s paths to election is a snowball, so aren’t modelled well with a logistic regression against their primary vote:

WA Greens

One Nation

Liberal Democrats

The Australian Christians

Family First

And here’s a look at the major parties seat breakdowns:

Major Parties Final Seats: ALP3

LP2

NP1

The running total of “most likely outcome” after four of the six Regions is … drum roll please:

Party	Seats (Majority = 19)
Liberal Party	11
WA Nationals	2
WA Labor	14
One Nation	4
The Shooters and Fishers	1
WA Greens	2
Fluoride Free	1
Australian Christians	1

From a tactical standpoint (and presuming an ALP majority in the Lower House), the ALP will require the WA Greens and either One Nation or Every Crossbencher to pass non-bipartisan legislation. Correspondingly, the LNP needs One Nation and at least one crossbencher in order to block legislation. The massive swing against the LNP government could also be directed towards minor parties, leaving a much larger crossbench (and weakening One Nation’s strength). Anything could happen tomorrow, all psephologists should be looking forward to it!

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Thomas Clement