Update: 2017/03/22 10:00 am Greens have pulled back on Labor in the South West Region, While ALP has the best change now for the final seat in Mining and Pastoral (which was previously the shooters). Similarly, the Liberal Democrats are at risk of losing to the Daylight Savings party in South Metro (They’re about 500 votes shy of winning). This is looking very good for Labor, with 18 seats between them and The Greens needing only one more vote for legislation.

Update: 2017/03/15 11:00 pm Unchanged most probable outcome, minor percentage changes. No “non ticket votes” have been counted yet (apart from Yallingup Hall which has counted 33 votes as below the line for Tim Hartley, and zero above the line, so I can only assume this is a typographical error).

Update: 2017/03/13 10:00 pm Labor have reigned in the Greens seat in South West Region, now it’s leaning towards Labor.

Update: 2017/03/12 11:50 pm Liberals have pulled back on Fluoride Free in East Metro, it’s a tossup now.

Update: 2017/03/12 3:30 am Final Update for the Night (definitely).

Shooters and Fishers have brought it back to 50-50 with Labor in Mining and Pastoral Region, and the WA Greens have brought it back against Labor in the South West Region, being the favourites now!

Update: 2017/03/12 2:00 am Final Update for the Night (maybe).

Big move in Mining and Pastoral Counts, giving WA Labor one of the WA National seats, and solidifying the seat they were holding vs. the WA Greens. This is looking really good for WA Labor

Update: 2017/03/12 1:00 am Pretty happy saying WA Labor will get 14 seats (with a tossup with WA Greens for a 15th, so let’s give that to the Greens for the following analysis), WA Nationals will get 4 (battle with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers for 5) and the Liberal Party with 9. This is interesting tactically, as it opens up a serious option for Nationals and Labor to pass legislation with 19 votes. If they don’t merge like that, there’s a 14-14 base vote, and then the minors come in on top. 4 votes to block, 5 to pass legislation. (the WA Greens are pretty solid with three votes, so locking them down would leave Labor needing two more votes).

This upper house is looking vastly more manageable for Labor than in Victoria (which turned into a big struggle).

I’ll take a break until the morning. I’ll update around 10-11 Sydney time

Most Likely Results (as at 3:30am Sydney Time)

Party (19 for majority)	Seats (2am)	Seats (3:30am)	Seats (11:50pm)	Seats (10pm 13/03)	Seats (11pm 15/03)	Seats (10am 22/03)
WA Labor	16	14	14	15	15	15
THE NATIONALS	4	4	4	4	4	4
Liberal Party	9	9	10	10	10	10
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	1	2	2	2	2	1
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation	2	2	2	2	2	2
The Greens (WA)	2	3	3	2	2	3
FLUORIDE FREE WA	1	1	0	0	0	0
Liberal Democrats	1	1	1	1	1	1

High Variance Counts

Agricultural Region (86k Votes Counted, 103k Enrolled)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
F	THE NATIONALS	25551	30.6	2.14	2.0
A	WA Labor	20484	24.53	1.72	1.999
I	Liberal Party	15814	18.94	1.33	1.0
E	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	4626	5.54	0.39	0.996
N	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	9671	11.58	0.81	0.005
Others		7363	8.82	0.62	0.0

East Metropolitan Region (328k Votes Counted, 395k Enrolled)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
N	WA Labor	150287	47.46	3.32	3.0
D	Liberal Party	80662	25.47	1.78	1.792
I	The Greens (WA)	25856	8.17	0.57	0.875
K	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	25153	7.94	0.56	0.174
G	FLUORIDE FREE WA	1109	0.35	0.02	0.148
Q	Australian Christians	7536	2.38	0.17	0.011
Others		26039	8.22	0.58	0.0

Mining and Pastoral Region (49k Votes Counted, 68k Enrolled)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
I	WA Labor	16376	34.67	2.43	2.396
Q	THE NATIONALS	8861	18.76	1.31	1.041
P	Liberal Party	7568	16.02	1.12	1.0
L	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	6504	13.77	0.96	0.962
C	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	2423	5.13	0.36	0.264
M	The Greens (WA)	2551	5.4	0.38	0.224
D	Flux The System!	418	0.88	0.06	0.112
Others		2531	5.36	0.38	0.0

North Metropolitan Region (324k Votes Counted, 391k Enrolled)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
J	Liberal Party	117633	37.29	2.61	2.717
B	WA Labor	119448	37.86	2.65	2.033
G	The Greens (WA)	29001	9.19	0.64	0.967
C	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	20368	6.46	0.45	0.274
E	Family First	2188	0.69	0.05	0.007
D	Daylight Saving Party	2430	0.77	0.05	0.002
O	Australian Christians	4773	1.51	0.11	0.0
Others		19642	6.23	0.44	0.0

South Metropolitan Region (340k Votes Counted, 409k Enrolled)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
H	WA Labor	150543	45.61	3.19	3.0
S	Liberal Party	83069	25.17	1.76	1.849
L	Liberal Democrats	13268	4.02	0.28	0.522
D	Daylight Saving Party	2546	0.77	0.05	0.47
M	The Greens (WA)	28269	8.56	0.6	0.148
B	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	22928	6.95	0.49	0.011
Others		29438	8.92	0.62	0.0

South West Region (190k Votes Counted, 226k Enrolled)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
D	WA Labor	68213	37.04	2.59	2.432
H	Liberal Party	42774	23.23	1.63	1.0
K	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	19437	10.56	0.74	0.999
P	THE NATIONALS	21822	11.85	0.83	0.996
E	The Greens (WA)	13159	7.15	0.5	0.568
A	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	7297	3.96	0.28	0.004
Others		11440	6.21	0.43	0.0

Pre Election Predictions

I’ve included this section for comparison to the live counts. Let’s see how I did!

Agricultural Region (Pre-Election Prediction)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
A	WA Labor	16154	29.7	2.08	2.059
F	THE NATIONALS	10457	19.23	1.35	1.126
I	Liberal Party	10204	18.76	1.31	1.064
E	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	2479	4.56	0.32	0.858
N	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	6308	11.6	0.81	0.438
O	Liberal Democrats	1391	2.56	0.18	0.398
H	The Greens (WA)	2831	5.2	0.36	0.034
D	Australian Christians	1415	2.6	0.18	0.01
C	Flux The System!	371	0.68	0.05	0.003
B	Family First	832	1.53	0.11	0.003
L	Micro Business Party	371	0.68	0.05	0.003
G	Daylight Saving Party	371	0.68	0.05	0.002
K	FLUORIDE FREE WA	371	0.68	0.05	0.001
Others		836	1.54	0.11	0.0

East Metropolitan Region (Pre-Election Prediction)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
N	WA Labor	135249	44.57	3.12	2.93
D	Liberal Party	93992	30.98	2.17	1.977
G	FLUORIDE FREE WA	1858	0.61	0.04	0.556
Q	Australian Christians	7836	2.58	0.18	0.256
I	The Greens (WA)	22839	7.53	0.53	0.122
K	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	17614	5.8	0.41	0.104
A	Daylight Saving Party	1858	0.61	0.04	0.021
F	Liberal Democrats	4645	1.53	0.11	0.011
R	Flux The System!	1858	0.61	0.04	0.009
H	Family First	3497	1.15	0.08	0.007
O	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	4749	1.57	0.11	0.005
C	Micro Business Party	1858	0.61	0.04	0.002
Others		5577	1.84	0.13	0.0

Mining and Pastoral Region (Pre-Election Prediction)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
I	WA Labor	14905	26.08	1.83	1.692
P	Liberal Party	13357	23.37	1.64	1.417
Q	THE NATIONALS	9351	16.36	1.15	1.044
L	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	7445	13.03	0.91	0.869
C	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	2028	3.55	0.25	0.327
D	Flux The System!	350	0.61	0.04	0.304
M	The Greens (WA)	4724	8.27	0.58	0.264
A	FLUORIDE FREE WA	350	0.61	0.04	0.035
T	Family First	1217	2.13	0.15	0.018
R	Liberal Democrats	874	1.53	0.11	0.013
H	Australian Christians	972	1.7	0.12	0.01
E	Daylight Saving Party	350	0.61	0.04	0.007
B	Micro Business Party	350	0.61	0.04	0.0
Others		871	1.52	0.11	0.0

North Metropolitan Region (Pre-Election Prediction)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
J	Liberal Party	116976	37.75	2.64	2.435
B	WA Labor	105911	34.18	2.39	2.103
G	The Greens (WA)	25261	8.15	0.57	0.587
C	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	33122	10.69	0.75	0.561
E	Family First	2782	0.9	0.06	0.12
O	Australian Christians	4569	1.47	0.1	0.096
I	FLUORIDE FREE WA	1778	0.57	0.04	0.032
D	Daylight Saving Party	1778	0.57	0.04	0.023
F	Micro Business Party	1778	0.57	0.04	0.022
K	Flux The System!	1778	0.57	0.04	0.012
M	Liberal Democrats	4444	1.43	0.1	0.008
P	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	3265	1.05	0.07	0.0
L	Animal Justice Party	3333	1.08	0.08	0.0
Others		3109	1.0	0.07	0.0

South Metropolitan Region (Pre-Election Prediction)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
H	WA Labor	133616	43.64	3.05	2.89
S	Liberal Party	97329	31.79	2.23	2.063
M	The Greens (WA)	25235	8.24	0.58	0.324
K	Australian Christians	5768	1.88	0.13	0.278
B	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	19394	6.33	0.44	0.172
T	Family First	5302	1.73	0.12	0.135
D	Daylight Saving Party	1188	0.39	0.03	0.105
J	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	4512	1.47	0.1	0.014
F	Micro Business Party	1188	0.39	0.03	0.01
L	Liberal Democrats	2970	0.97	0.07	0.006
P	Animal Justice Party	2227	0.73	0.05	0.0
E	FLUORIDE FREE WA	1188	0.39	0.03	0.0
C	Flux The System!	1188	0.39	0.03	0.0
A	Socialist Alliance	1485	0.49	0.03	0.0
Others		3564	1.16	0.08	0.0

South West Region (Pre-Election Prediction)

Group	Name	Votes	Percent	Quotas	Seats!
D	WA Labor	59917	35.47	2.48	2.254
H	Liberal Party	48572	28.75	2.01	1.852
K	Pauline Hanson's One Nation	16513	9.77	0.68	0.534
E	The Greens (WA)	12277	7.27	0.51	0.487
P	THE NATIONALS	12612	7.47	0.52	0.283
M	FLUORIDE FREE WA	1031	0.61	0.04	0.16
N	Liberal Democrats	2576	1.52	0.11	0.125
G	Flux The System!	1031	0.61	0.04	0.093
O	Daylight Saving Party	1031	0.61	0.04	0.066
C	Family First	2456	1.45	0.1	0.063
A	Shooters, Fishers and Farmers	3810	2.26	0.16	0.054
F	Australian Christians	2338	1.38	0.1	0.019
B	Micro Business Party	1031	0.61	0.04	0.007
L	Animal Justice Party	1932	1.14	0.08	0.002
Others		1805	1.07	0.07	0.0